Yes, folks, it’s that time of year – hurricane season is right around the corner, and experts are finally weighing in on what they expect this season to look like.
If you’re like the rest of the world and curious about that to expect this coming season, read on. But be warned; if you’re looking for some good news and a mild season, you’re going to be disappointed.
It’s not an exact science, predicting the weather – but we all knew that. Meteorologists aren’t saying that their predictions for the upcoming hurricane season are going to be 100% accurate, but it does give a guideline to look forward to.
Experts look at numerous factors to determine the intensity of the upcoming season, including the past few hurricane seasons and the hurricane seasons from years with comparable weather.
For this year, they looked at the data from the years 1980 to 2005, which are considered ‘analog’ years. This basically means that weather conditions are about the same then as they are now, so we can expect to see similar outcomes.
Here’s the bad news – 1980 and 2005 were very bad storm years. In 1980 Hurricane Allen was a category 5 that killed over 200 people. 2005 was what scientists call a “hyperactive” hurricane season, and it spawned 28 storms.
If you remember, Hurricane Katrina also hit in 2005, decimating New Orleans and the people who lived there. It took hundreds of lives and did untold amounts of damage to the area.
Scientists are predicting an above-average year for hurricane activity through 2020, which will make it the fifth year in the row if this prediction comes true.
Right now, experts are predicting between 14-18 tropical storms, with about 7-9 of those transforming into hurricanes. Of that, only 2-4 are expected to progress to “major” hurricanes.
A year that is considered normal only has about 12 storms total, with 6 of those turning into hurricanes and even less morphing into a major storm.
Experts also said the time to prepare is right now, because they don’t know how bad these major storms are going to be and how hard they will hit coastal areas.
Warmer water is going to create bigger storms, but it’s still too early to say. They ask people to look at the last few major storms, like Dorian and Imelda, and start planning like they will be hit like that.
This means storm shutters, emergency hurricane plans in place, and a go-bag packed and ready at all times. The year 2020 is no joke, and if meteorologists are right, this hurricane season is going to pack quite a punch.